Let’s take a look at what Jimmy “The Franchise” Garoppolo will accomplish in terms of stats going into the 2018-2019 NFL season.
First of all, let’s take a look back at Jimmy’s stats last year before we try and put together what kind of campaign he will have going into this season. Jimmy played in 6 games last year and started in 5 of them. Per NFL Network, he had 178 passing attempts and 120 completions for 1,560 yards, which equates to a completion rate of 67.4%. He was averaging 8.8 yards per attempt, threw for 7 touchdowns while also throwing 5 interceptions. He also had 15 rushing attempts for 11 yards and 1 touchdown. His longest pass of the season came on a pass to TE Garrett Celek — who took it for 61 yards in week 14 vs Houston Texans.
One of the main categories to get a full view of how Jimmy G’s 6 games went is his passer rating, which was 96.2.
(Just a little knowledge on passer rating if you don’t know how it’s calculated and what it means — it is graded on the NFL scale from 0 to 158.3 and it uses a player’s passing attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions to formulate the passer rating. While media outlets have started to move away from the traditional passer rating and towards a system like QBR, I think there is still plenty of value in the old measuring system.)
So the passer rating does give us a bigger picture to look at Jimmy G’s overall performance — and he did grade out fairly well for those 6 games. His average yards per attempt (YPA) was one of the highest in the league! When looking at his tape, one can see he did very well for his limited time understanding the playbook, having limited weapons and lastly, having an average/below-average offensive line.
Looking ahead to this year, there are many things that will factor into an improvement on Garoppolo’s statistics and overall offense for the 49ers. The offensive line looks to be vastly improved with the additions of Weston Richburg, Mike McGlinchey and the return of Joshua Garnett. The O-line will also of course be anchored by the returning veteran and All-Pro left tackle Joe Staley. The RBs and WRs that will be big contributors for Garoppolo will likely be Jerick McKinnon, Pierre Garçon, Marquise Goodwin and Dante Pettis. With the playbook magician Kyle Shannahan drawing up plays, the sky is the limit for Jimmy G in this offense in 2018 and look for his numbers to drastically improve!
With all that being said let’s take a look at what his stats should project to be in 2018. Look for him to play in a full 16-game campaign if there’s no possibility for a 1st-round bye for the 49ers to lock up (which I don’ think they will be in a position to do so). With the way the 49ers offense is set up — it looks to be an up-tempo offense that throws the ball more than they run it, so look for him to throw for around 4,500 yards on 540 passing attempts and 370 completions which equates to 69% completion rate. The addition of McKinnon, a better pass-catching back, and the return of a healthy Pierre Garçon should allow Garoppolo to throw more passing TD’s. Look for him to throw for 28 touchdowns, while also throwing 9 interceptions. His rushing attempts should be a lot less with an improved offensive line so look for him to rush for 27 attempts for 65 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns.
The main category that I did focus on was the passer rating and look for Garoppolo to be around a 99.5 passer rating which would certainly indicate a high caliber of play.
Overall the projected numbers I have looked at for Jimmy Garoppolo are on track with what he produced in the last 5 games of 2017. Improvements all around him should benefit him greatly, so look for his numbers to stay on track with what they were last year and even improve. If Jimmy produces these numbers in 2018 look for the 49ers to ride into the playoffs red-hot!
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